Sic Semper Tyrannis (November 10 2016)
We are two days post election and already seeing people predicting what a potential Trump Administration will look like. Estimates are all over the place, with the people who confidently predicted Trump could never beat Hillary confidently predicting how his administration will be run. Obviously, they have learned nothing. If we are to understand what a Trump Administration will look like, we must consider and accept a few facts to develop a reasonable analysis.
First, Trump is unprecedented in what he has done, and the way he did it. Running a guerilla campaign, the man put to bed the two most prominent political dynasties in the US (the Bushes and the Clintons), in his first national campaign. A reminder: this is a group that contains: three former presidents, two governors, a senator, a secretary of state, and the director of the CIA. This is not a feat that should be underplayed or disregarded. I say this because there is a tendency to regard Trump as an “amateur”, and this is reminiscent of the “he is not really trying!” rhetoric we heard during certain parts of the campaign. Keep in mind this accomplishment when trying to figure out how he will go forward or making ridiculous claims.
We must also consider who did not support Trump, and who did. The “NeverTrump” faction was mostly neocons who were upset about his Jacksonian style engagement, and wanted a hot war with Russia over Syria, Pussy Riot, and transsexual bathrooms. The appearance of those who espouse certain neocon platitudes (Bolton, Flynn), should be noted, but it should also be taken into consideration that Trump is a deviously fast learner. The man saw the pitfalls and tar babies that the Bush II and Obama Administrations entered, won the Presidency partially on saying he’d avoid foreign entanglements, and I imagine he knows very well who these people are and what they want. In the case of Bolton, the man’s boisterous nature over certain foreign policy entanglements is offset by the fact he seems very “America First” when it comes to foreign policy. However, the hardcore neocons such as Krauthammer and Wolfowitz will not be allowed within missile distance of a Trump Adminis tration. I wouldn’t freak out about Trump bringing in certain personages, as he seems to adopt the maxim about “friends close, enemies closer”.
The two largest ideological brakes on any neocon influence will be Senator Jeff Sessions and Stephen Miller. These two men are very much opposed to the “invade the world, invite the world” of neocons like McCain and the others, and seem to play some very vital, important role in his administration beyond what their public personage suggests. I would not be surprised to find out that they wield as much influence with the man as Ivanka, and their usage in his administration is likely going to be spectacular in some way. Remember, Sessions has been the Godfather of Immigration Enforcement hawkishness, and is a leading senior senator to boot. The man will get what he wants and can make it happen finally.
More on this. Finally, let us consider Trump personally. While much is made of his oversized, boisterous personality, when we consider the private man we see a different side that is thoughtful, analytical, and not prone to hasty decisions. To borrow a reference from popular culture, he is Tywin Lannister in a way, where he states that if his enemies bend the knee, it is his responsibility to help them to their feet. Look at his treatment of Ted Cruz for instance. While their relationship is tense, Trump hasn’t held Cruz at length, but instead brought him into the campaign. The same goes for Christie, Carson, and others. Each of these men is going to have a role in the new Trump Administration. I would not be surprised if Cruz gets a SCOTUS (Supreme Court) nod, depending on factors such as how hard will Cruz work for Trump in the Senate.
So, what policies will Trump bring in his first six months? Right now, it seems health care reform and tax reform are on the table, as well as infrastructure. All things we can get behind. I cannot speculate exactly on what is planned, but I will make three broad points on these issues. Health care reform will not be the usual Republican giveaway to big business, but will have a decidedly populist bent while not being socialized for everyone. People don’t want Grandma not getting her check-up, but they also don’t like seeing people get hand-outs. Look for large tax cuts to the middle class as well as corporate tax reform, and infrastructure reform will include funding the wall. Trump will get this by slicing off the Populist Wing of the Democratic Party (Warren & Sanders) and giving them trophies to wave around as showing that they are “with the people”. These overtures have already been made, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he offered one or two them positions i n his Administration.
Foreign policy wise, Trump will begin rapprochements with Russia and other “nationalist/populist” governments across the world, such as those Eastern European countries that refused to heed the diktats of the EU. Trump married an Eastern European after all, and one of his ex-wives is Eastern European. Obviously, the man has a fondness for the region. Look for closer ties with these countries beyond “catspaw against Russia”.
Speaking of Russia, look for an axis to form between the two countries with respect not only for spheres of influence, but cultural considerations as well. There will be less of the attempt to impose secular hedonism on the world, but instead a respect for how each nation tends to its affairs. Ironically, it will be an actual diversity instead of the faux diversity espoused by the globalist adherents of secular hedonism. In the short term, look for the conflict in Syria to wrapped up neatly (as these things go), by the end of the year.
On the domestic front, you are already seeing the resurrection of the paid Soros mobs that exist to sow chaos and attempt to cause an overreaction by the authorities. Think of these as domestic “colour revolutions” and funded Maidan Squares. Again, the Left doubles down on a failed policy. It refuses to realize that Trump ran on a law and order platform, and he knows what he owes the people who put him in power. You will see a series of short, sharp responses from an unchained law enforcement able to do its job. There will be the usual mainstream media propaganda showing the one bleeding baby and woman while claiming that you had a (white) police officer giving them the business with both hands on his nightstick. Rioters will inevitably be classified as “peaceful protesters” even as the vehicles are on fire around them. The mainstream media will further lose cachet. Some of you wonder why Trump wants to expand libel laws against the media – here is why. It is the n ature of the Left, which is in permanent revolution, to overplay its hand. We are seeing it again.
On immigration, Trump does not need to pass broad sweeping laws. He only needs to enforce the ones on the books, something the Obama Administration has not been doing. Look for cries of outrage when Trump replaces many US Attorneys (like when Bush II did the same), and remember this wasn’t an issue when Obama did the same thing. Cutting off aid to sanctuary cities, enforcing immigration law, and making the process of living in the US so onerous for those here illegally will go a long way to reducing our illegal alien population.
Remember when I mentioned Senator Sessions? I would not be surprised if he has stacks of papers on what can already be done. Again, look for more staged incidents of “brutality” in order to attempt to shape a narrative. You are about to be surprised by the amount of would be doctors and rocket scientists claiming to exist in the illegal alien population. Furthermore, Trump does not need to pass a law to build a wall. He simply needs it in the budget. I imagine he will have no problem getting that and pointing towards anyone who attempts to obstruct it as putting the needs of foreign citizens before US citizens. This is powerful rhetoric.
I’ll close by saying let us remember that “everyone” said Trump couldn’t win. Trump did win. Do not make the mistake of assuming Trump won’t do what he says he’s done so you can sleep easier, forming opinions on a mirage you create in the space of your mind. Instead, my friends on the Left, worry that he will not only do what he said he would, but he’ll go above and beyond, and the people will love him for it.